Blog

The stimulus bills approved by Congress starting in 2020 led to the largest surge in government spending in history, coinciding with a sharp rise in inflation. This has led many to assume that government spending itself caused...

Contrary to popular belief, inflation doesn’t stem from rising wages, greedy businesses, government deficits, or even rapid economic growth—it results from the excessive printing of money. In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we break...

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we explore the performance of the S&P 500 Index in the third quarter of 2024. The Index posted an impressive total return of 5.9% for the quarter, bringing its year-to-date (YTD) total...

As we move into fall and back-to-school season is in full swing, we continue looking at the latest thoughts on markets and the economy. Here is the most recent commentary from City National Rochdale. The Fed Funds Rate easing cycle has...

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we examine recent trends in the U.S. housing market. On Tuesday, new data on home prices were released: the Case-Shiller Index rose 0.2% in July, up 5.0% from the previous year and...

With only one week left in the fiscal year, it looks like the budget deficit for the federal government for Fiscal Year 2024 is going to come in at about $1.9 trillion, which is 6.7% of GDP. Read more...

Citizens freely expressing political opinions is the most prized aspect of a functioning democracy. That freedom will certainly be on full display as we head toward the hotly contested Presidential election. RBA has always been highly...

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we look at the Federal Reserve’s financials through the second quarter of 2024. Back in 2008, the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) embarked on a novel experiment in monetary policy by...

The lags between a shift in monetary policy and the economic impact are long and variable. While the actions of the Federal Reserve during the pandemic were unprecedented, it finally looks like the excess money pumped into the economy...

In today’s Three on Thursday, we look at the auto sector in the United States. Auto sales in the U.S. are an important driver of economic activity, influencing various sectors from manufacturing to retail. Robust auto sales often...

The election year is in full swing, bringing with it the usual drama. In today’s Three on Thursday, we examine past presidential cycles and their implications for investing. Amid all the drama and political uncertainty with an election...

One of our main contentions in recent months is that the Federal Reserve, by switching from a scarce reserve model to an abundant reserve model, has completely taken over the short-term interest rates marketplace. The Fed’s balance...

In this week’s installment of “Three on Thursday,” we take a look at nuclear power. Nuclear energy is a crucial component of the global energy landscape. Unlike fossil fuels, nuclear power plants produce a substantial amount of...

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we dive into the U.S. treasury yield curve. A normal yield curve, sloping upwards, suggests healthy economic conditions, with investors expecting higher returns for longer-term loans. An inverted...

Given today’s narrow market, with 7 stocks primarily driving S&P 500® Index outperformance, now seems the ideal time to re-examine diversification. For more, see this piece produced by Richard Bernstein Advisors. Read more...

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we take a deeper look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a key measure of inflation, measuring the average change in price over time of a market basket of consumer goods and...

The Fed meets this week, which means investors and analysts will be sifting through Wednesday’s FOMC statement, updated economic projections, the “dot plots,” and Powell’s press conference searching for any...

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we look at the current overall financial health of households in the United States. Quarterly, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors releases a report officially known...

Every day this week, investors will get data on the economy.  New home sales today, then capital investment, GDP, consumer incomes and spending, manufacturing, and auto sales are on the list.  All of this will feed into the...

Few people grasp the profound changes our monetary and banking systems underwent when Ben Bernanke was Federal Reserve Chair and Hank Paulson was Treasury Secretary. This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” is our...

A key economic mistake people make is thinking growth leads inflation.  One reason they do that is because inflation is a monetary phenomenon.  When money is too easy, first growth rises, and then inflation rises with a...

This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” looks at the current state and trajectory of global population. While global population is still growing in absolute numbers, population growth rates peaked decades ago. What...

This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” looks at where short-term interest rates in the U.S. could be heading in 2024. There exists a significant gap between the market’s expectations and the U.S. Federal...

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we look at the patterns of migration between states, finding the winners and losers. Our specific focus today centers on the change in domestic net migration between states,...

The economy is still growing.  Real GDP rose at a solid 3.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and consumer spending was strong in December meaning the first quarter is off to a good start.  New home sales came in above...

This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” looks at the S&P 500 Index in 2023. For 2023, the S&P 500 Index delivered a total return of 26.3%. Serving as a benchmark for the broader stock market, many investors found...

Happy New Year! Below is an update with our latest thinking on the economy, markets, and portfolio considerations. Please feel free to share this with your clients as appropriate. As we kick off 2024, we see a mixed outlook for the...

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we explore the dynamics of trade between the United States and the rest of the world. The U.S. operates with a significant trade deficit, meaning it imports more than it exports....

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we take a deeper look at the employment landscape in the United States. The employment sector has undergone a tumultuous journey over the past four years, and recently...

Last Friday’s jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up 216,000 in December, beating the consensus expected 175,000. Many are arguing that this was a huge number proving that the economy is not going into recession.  But...

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we take a look at immigration in the United States. The U.S. remains one of the few countries where people risk their lives daily to come in, not out of, so it’s no surprise...

Just because we still think the economy is headed for a recession, doesn’t mean we think the housing market is going to get killed. Read more...

Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists around the world, rated us the most accurate forecasters of the United States for 2022, based on...

2023 will likely go down in history as a year of extreme speculation. However, we believe there are once-in-a-generation investment opportunities for 2024 resulting from that overly speculative myopia. In our year ahead outlook, we...

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we take a deeper look at retail sales, shining a spotlight on the consumer in the ongoing economic recovery. Over the past decade, significant shifts in spending patterns have...