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Monday, December 2, 2019

During the next couple of days you're going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on...

Monday, November 25, 2019

What an incredible time to be alive! We stand just five weeks from the end of a decade that saw prosperity spread far and wide. Some don't see it that way, as pouting pundits and rancorous politics skew our visions. But, if we simply...

Monday, November 18, 2019

Last December, almost 12 months ago, we set our year-end 2019 target for the S&P 500 at 3,100. Many thought we were way too bullish, but our model for the stock market suggested 3,100 was well within reach. We believed the bull market...

Monday, November 11, 2019

One of our favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer's 1990 book, "Unlimited Wealth." It is an excellent tool for thinking about wealth creation, inequality and redistribution. Imagine 10 people live on an...

Monday, November 4, 2019

Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial...

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Monday, October 28, 2019

At the close of business on Friday, the futures market in federal funds was putting the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would place the federal funds rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75%, the lowest it's...

Monday, October 21, 2019

The government doesn't release its initial estimate on third quarter real GDP for another nine days, but at this point we have enough facts and figures to make an educated guess that it'll come in at right around a 1.8% annual rate,...

Monday, October 7, 2019

In spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday's employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most Americans have...

Thursday, October 3, 2019

You can convert your IRA to a Roth … but should you? In 2010, Congress began letting everyone convert their Deductible and Non-Deductible IRAs to a Roth IRA. (Previously, conversions were limited to those with Adjusted Gross...

Monday, September 30, 2019

Trade Fears Sap SentimentU.S. stocks declined Friday to end at a three-week low on unconfirmed reports theTrump administration is considering restrictions on American investments into Chinesesecurities and possibly delist Chinese...

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

• Market swings are getting bigger as investor worries about trade gain ground. • Although we expect a trade agreement between China and the U.S. to materialize, the heated rhetoric has increased in recent weeks. •...

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

U.S. stocks retreated over 2.5% on Friday after China announced an additional round of retaliatory tariffs on $75B worth of American goods on September 1 and December 15 and President Trump vowed to respond accordingly. The trade...

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

If you’ve been feeling a little déjà vu these days, it’s with good reason. The ‘90s are making a comeback—or so it would seem. Both then and now, we saw a reboot of Star Wars films, are watching...

Monday, August 26, 2019

Analysts were very quick to pin the blame for weakness in stocks late last week on the trade war with China. We agree that uncertainty regarding the future of US-China trade relations was a drag on equities, but think it was far from...

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so...

Monday, August 19, 2019

U.S. stocks ended a volatile week with back-to-back daily gains, trimming its third straight weekly loss to under 1% after skidding to a two-month low on Wednesday. The S&P 500’s near 3% mid-week loss was caused by a global...

Friday, August 16, 2019

• Volatility has increased and the S&P 500 is now down over 6% from its peak. • While the Treasury yield curve is inverted, it is still hard to predict future equity declines. • We expect volatility to remain elevated...