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Thursday, March 28, 2024

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we dive into the U.S. treasury yield curve. A normal yield curve, sloping upwards, suggests healthy economic conditions, with investors expecting higher returns for longer-term loans. An inverted...

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Given today’s narrow market, with 7 stocks primarily driving S&P 500® Index outperformance, now seems the ideal time to re-examine diversification. For more, see this piece produced by Richard Bernstein Advisors. Read more...

Thursday, March 21, 2024

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we take a deeper look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a key measure of inflation, measuring the average change in price over time of a market basket of consumer goods and...

Monday, March 18, 2024

The Fed meets this week, which means investors and analysts will be sifting through Wednesday’s FOMC statement, updated economic projections, the “dot plots,” and Powell’s press conference searching for any...

Thursday, March 14, 2024

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we look at the current overall financial health of households in the United States. Quarterly, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors releases a report officially known...

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Monday, February 26, 2024

Every day this week, investors will get data on the economy.  New home sales today, then capital investment, GDP, consumer incomes and spending, manufacturing, and auto sales are on the list.  All of this will feed into the...

Thursday, February 22, 2024

Few people grasp the profound changes our monetary and banking systems underwent when Ben Bernanke was Federal Reserve Chair and Hank Paulson was Treasury Secretary. This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” is our...

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

A key economic mistake people make is thinking growth leads inflation.  One reason they do that is because inflation is a monetary phenomenon.  When money is too easy, first growth rises, and then inflation rises with a...

Thursday, February 15, 2024

This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” looks at the current state and trajectory of global population. While global population is still growing in absolute numbers, population growth rates peaked decades ago. What...

Friday, February 9, 2024

This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” looks at where short-term interest rates in the U.S. could be heading in 2024. There exists a significant gap between the market’s expectations and the U.S. Federal...

Thursday, February 1, 2024

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we look at the patterns of migration between states, finding the winners and losers. Our specific focus today centers on the change in domestic net migration between states,...

Monday, January 29, 2024

The economy is still growing.  Real GDP rose at a solid 3.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and consumer spending was strong in December meaning the first quarter is off to a good start.  New home sales came in above...

Thursday, January 25, 2024

This week’s edition of “Three on Thursday” looks at the S&P 500 Index in 2023. For 2023, the S&P 500 Index delivered a total return of 26.3%. Serving as a benchmark for the broader stock market, many investors found...

Saturday, January 20, 2024

Happy New Year! Below is an update with our latest thinking on the economy, markets, and portfolio considerations. Please feel free to share this with your clients as appropriate. As we kick off 2024, we see a mixed outlook for the...

Friday, January 19, 2024

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we explore the dynamics of trade between the United States and the rest of the world. The U.S. operates with a significant trade deficit, meaning it imports more than it exports....

Thursday, January 11, 2024

In this week’s edition of “Three on Thursday,” we take a deeper look at the employment landscape in the United States. The employment sector has undergone a tumultuous journey over the past four years, and recently...

Monday, January 8, 2024

Last Friday’s jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up 216,000 in December, beating the consensus expected 175,000. Many are arguing that this was a huge number proving that the economy is not going into recession.  But...

Thursday, January 4, 2024

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we take a look at immigration in the United States. The U.S. remains one of the few countries where people risk their lives daily to come in, not out of, so it’s no surprise...

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Just because we still think the economy is headed for a recession, doesn’t mean we think the housing market is going to get killed. Read more...

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists around the world, rated us the most accurate forecasters of the United States for 2022, based on...

Friday, December 22, 2023

2023 will likely go down in history as a year of extreme speculation. However, we believe there are once-in-a-generation investment opportunities for 2024 resulting from that overly speculative myopia. In our year ahead outlook, we...

Thursday, December 21, 2023

In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we take a deeper look at retail sales, shining a spotlight on the consumer in the ongoing economic recovery. Over the past decade, significant shifts in spending patterns have...