Blog

It’s hard to open up a newspaper these days and not see a scary story about the debt ceiling debate.  The Biden Administration is saying that a “default” is approaching if an agreement isn’t reached soon...

Yes, we have banking problems.  No, this is not 2008.  It’s much more like the 1970s Savings & Loan problems.  In other words, we do not have credit problems today, we have duration (asset-liability) problems....

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

In spite of weakness in some economic data, problems in the banking sector, and much higher interest rates, real GDP in the first quarter will almost certainly show moderate growth.  Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is 15% higher than its...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

What is the Fed’s outlook right now?The Fed remains singularly focused on bringing down inflation.Although the recent Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) takeover of a couple of banks has added some uncertainty, the Fed is...

Demise of the US Dollar: Greatly Exaggerated or Destiny?Key TakeawaysUS dollar has gotten a lot of press recently.Some “de-dollarization” is likely to occur over time.The long-term impact is both positive and...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

If you were bullish for 2023…congratulations!  The S&P 500 rose 7.0% in the first quarter and, although we still have more data to analyze before we finalize our prediction, it looks like real GDP grew at about a 2.0% annual...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

It's ComplicatedJust days before the news of the stress in the banking system that raised fears of the ghosts of 2008 appearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was on Capitol Hill discussing the probability of a more grueling rate hike path...

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.  That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

Fed Decision - Aiming for StabilityKey TakeawaysRecent stresses in the banking system, including episodes at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse, have put the markets on edge.The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25%,...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

Banking Crisis Averted, But Risks RemainWhy did this happen?In it's simplest form, banks gather deposits from clients (individuals and corporations), and they pay those clients a short-term interest rate.Read more...

Executive summary:SVB had a concentrated depository base and an asset portfolio with a higher percentage in bonds than loans, making it different than an average bankBecause of these differences, most industry experts do not view the...

You can’t read or watch financial news these days without a heavy dose of speculation about what the Fed is going to do with short-term interest rates, when it’s going to do it, and how long it’s going to do it for...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

Dooming Debt or Deja Vu?Key TakeawaysThe US debt ceiling is not about future spending but instead is about paying past due bills.The US has never defaulted on its debt.The odds of a default in the latest showdown remain low but odds of...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

Markets have been volatile, with reports convincing many that the Fed is done hiking rates.  But this week, we get data that may change some minds.  Why?  Because the economic reports for January are likely to come in...

The Fed raised the federal funds rate by just 25 basis points (bps); what do you make of that?The Fed continued to downshift the size of its interest rate increases. The recent move was an increase of 25 bps to 4.625%. That move...

The S&P 500 index rose 1.6% last week with the communication services and technology sectors leading a broad climb amid better-than-expected quarterly results from some companies and a slower pace of rate increases...

The Economic Slowdown Is BroadeningData released over the past few weeks have shown that economic growth slowed in the last two months of 2022. Although parts of the economy started to moderate this past summer, it was in relatively...

The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path…but not for the reasons that most people think.Yes, the national debt is $31 trillion, well higher than annual GDP, and only going higher.  Yes, the budget deficit last year...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

We live in unprecedented times. Since the COVID pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by a massive increase in government spending, COVID-related shutdowns, and a huge increase in the money supply.  In all our years of...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 3 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now, many are saying...

As we are starting a new year, what is the Federal Reserve thinking?The most important message from the mid-December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was the Fed  reaffirming its resolve to tame inflation by...

Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold...

The housing sector was a huge and early beneficiary of the super-loose monetary policy of 2020-21. But, once the Fed started tightening, housing took the lead downward, as well.  This isn’t a repeat of the 2006-11 housing...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

What did the Fed decide at its year-end meeting?The Fed is singularly focused on reducing the rate of inflation.As a result, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates higher than previously thought and plan to keep them higher for...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

The Path of Inflation – It’s All About That BaseWhether it's the price of bread, gasoline, or rent, we all feel inflation. As consumers, we often feel inflation differently than the Fed measures inflation. In this month's...

A Slowdown in the Pace of Raising Rates, Not a PivotIn regards to monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank appears to be in a transition phase.This week, at its final meeting of the year, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 50...

Predicting stock values in 2023 is tough.  Unprecedented actions during COVID leaves a wide range of possible outcomes.Let us explain.Read more... 

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

What is the Fed thinking going into year-end? The Fed will conclude its final meeting of the year on December 14 and they are expected toraise the federal funds rate by 50 bps at that meeting.This will be a step down from their...

Our position on the economy has been that the US is headed for a recession, but we’re not quite there yet.  Nothing in all the recent data reports changes our minds.  Look for a recession to start in the second half of...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

It’s that special time of the year, and we will all hear and read a great deal about Black Friday, Thanksgiving Weekend, and Cyber Monday during the next few days.  Many pundits are going to make sweeping conclusions about...

We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake.  There is virtually no evidence that death rates were lowered by government mandates and lockdowns.Read more...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

Recent data has shown mounting evidence that the pace of economic growth is continuing to moderate.The final sales numbers from the GDP report, which takes out the volatile components and shows the underlying trend in GDP (it measures...

Is the labor market starting to slow?Job growth remains strong, but cracks are emerging.This October report was broadly a continuation of the strong labor growth that has been in place all year. So far in 2022, payrolls have increased...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

What does the strong jump in Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mean about the economy?The gain more than offset the decline in the year’s first half. The quarterly change helped maintain the annual rate at 1.8% (see...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

Has inflation started to respond to the Fed's interest rate hikes?Not yet, inflation is still running hot.The September’s gain in Consumer price index (CPI) was up 0.4% Month-over-month (MoM) and 8.2% Year-over-year (YoY), down...

The pace of economic growth has been slowing this year. Policymakers are telling the same hawkish story: The Fed will do what it takes to get inflation down even if it triggers a recession.That is not much of a surprise...

Key Takeaways• 2022 has dealt a blow to the 60/40 portfolio. While losses in a 60/40 portfolio are not unusual, losses in stocks and bonds simultaneously are unusual.• Since 1928, with nearly 100 years of track record, the...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

How hawkish was the Fed at its recent meeting?The Feds new motto seems to be: Supersize it!The Fed has made a very hawkish move. It has barreled ahead with the third hike of 75 bps. Its plan for the rest of the year implies another...

After a summer rally, volatility is back in full swing. 2022 has challenged investors’ patience as almost every investmenthas had negative returns, with the exception of commodities, the US dollar, and cash.Read more...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

Midterm elections are around the corner, and the outcome will determine which party has control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The result can also be a signal for the next presidential election. Midterm elections are...

The yearly change in CPI has been falling for two months, so what happened to the enthusiasm?There has been a change in optimism on the inflation front.Last month, the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that...

Since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole in late August, there has been a full slate of other Fed policymakers telling the same hawkish story: The Fed will do what it takes to get inflation down even if...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

If you’re still wondering how much the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week, you should wonder no more: the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

What did Fed chair Powell say at the annual economic symposium held at Jackson Hole, Wyoming?Powell’s speech was short (about eight minutes long) and he did what he needed to do; Powell made sure the whole world knew that the Fed...

The housing sector surged during COVID in large part due to loose money.  The Federal Reserve kept short-term rates artificially low and the M2 measure of the money supply soared.  Now, with rising short-term rates and slower...

We live in unprecedented times. The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown. Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. Now with two...

With US inflation experiencing record highs and financial markets in correction territory, investors and their portfolios arebeing stress tested for the first time since the pandemic-induced drawdown of March 2020. With some components...

Has inflation peaked?It appears so. The yearly change in the consumer price index (CPI) fell in July to 8.5% from 9.1%, which was the highest in 40 years. A big chunk of the pullback came from dropping gasoline prices, which fell 7.7%...

We live in unprecedented times.  The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown.  Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. ...

The news seems to focus on the risks of the economy being in a recession or soon to enter a recession.This can be seen in the number of people asking that question to Google, which has skyrocketed. It is higher now than in the past two...

We live in unprecedented times.  The recession in 2020 was not so much a recession as it was a lockdown.  Using “normal words” to describe the economy in the last 2 years, we believe, does not make sense. ...

What should we expect next from the Fed?The Federal Reserve meets eight times per year, typically scheduling six weeks between each meeting. The last meeting occurred on July 27 and the federal funds rate increased by 75 basis points...

Investing seems easy when markets rally and are generally calm. But markets don’t just move up or in a single direction.Markets adapt, gyrate and create new cycles with each being slightly different than the one before....

With the Senate having passed a budget plan yesterday with only Democratic votes as well as a tie broken by Vice President Harris, it is only a matter of time before President Biden signs the first significant tax hike since the...

When volatility strikes and stock markets decline, it can rattle even the most experienced investors. As behavioral sciencetells us, the pain of an investment loss is felt more keenly than the enjoyment of an investment gain. The urge...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) on Wednesday.  The day before, the Fed had released M2 money supply data for June and it fell slightly, the second...

Is the U.S. economy already in recession?U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the first quarter, and there are increasing signs it may do so again in the second.If that turns out to be the case, it would match a popular rule of...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

Milton Friedman famously declared that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”. While it’s hard todisagree with a legendary economist, monetary economics don’t quite capture real life and how...

As we head into the Q2’22 corporate earnings season, we thought it would be an opportune time to briefly discuss what is potentially at stake in the current climate, particularly with respect to the direction of the stock market....

At the start of the year, we expected global economies to continue to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic but at a more modest pace than in 2021. While that holds true, the pace of change in macroeconomic fundamentals...

If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates.  Unfortunately, this is just not true.  Yes, raising rates may slow the...

Investors are currently grappling with the question of whether the recent rise in interest rates will lead to an economicslowdown (soft landing) or an economic recession (hard landing). While the odds of a recession by year-end...

The Bottom Line: Reports of the Death of the US Economy Have Been Greatly ExaggeratedAlthough data over the past few weeks has shown a loss of economic momentum, a recession is not expected in the near term. Aside from the slowdown in...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

How many times have you heard that the US dollar will collapse because of Fed and fiscal policy?  According to the pessimists, this will bring the loss of reserve currency status, and possibly the rise of China.Replace China with...

Is the slowing pace of economic growth impacting the labor market?Not yet. In June, employers added 372,000 new jobs. That is a strong pace; in the past expansion, when jobs increased, they averaged 194,000.Moreover, the unemployment...

Some investors think the US is already in a recession.  As we wrote two weeks ago and as recent data have confirmed, we don’t think that’s the case.  Industrial production is up at a rapid pace so far this year,...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

As we celebrate 246 years of national independence, our country is now more than two years into an economic recovery from the two-month COVID Lockdown Depression.  Although the economy has improved dramatically from the complete...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.  The Fed only releases this data on a monthly basis.  They used to release it weekly, and we think not...

A bear market occurs when stocks fall 20 percent from a recent high. On Monday, June 13, 2022, the S&P 500 fell 22 percent from the last high set on January 3, 2022, thus officially entering a bear market in 2022. 1 Similarly, a bull...

Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2.  We still think real GDP will turn out to be positive in the second quarter, but if you...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.  We were also bullish after COVID-19 hit.  We got called "perma-bulls," but as we look back at the low interest rates and healthy profit...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

The Housing Market is Taking it on the ChinThe housing market has peaked. Since mid-December, when the Fed announced a speeding up of the pace of reducing the size of their bond portfolio, longer-term interest rates have moved up...

All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday when it announces how much it's going to raise short-term rates, its new projections for the economy and short-term rates for the next few years, as well as...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

Stock market losses occur for various reasons. Sometimes they are driven by excessive market valuations after anextended bull market. In others, they may be due to external events, such as a war or a pandemic. A look back at theworst...

What do you think the Fed is planning for its next meeting on June 15?Based on comments from various senior Fed officials’ speeches, the Fed is expected to hike thefederal fund rate by 50 basis points to 1.375%. This will be the...

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon caused a stir lately when he talked about a "hurricane" hitting the US economy.  We think he may eventually be right, but is way too early.  The employment report for May confirmed that the US...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show continued...

Has inflation peaked?The April consumer price index report came in 8.3% year over year (y-o-y), a slight decline from March’s 8.5%. That is the good news. The bad news is that inflationary pressures will not be falling quickly...

If you're a consistent investor, bad markets can be a good thingBenjamin Graham is credited with the idea that, in the short-run, the market is a voting machine but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine. So long as...

What did we learn from Q3 earnings season? With nearly 90% of companies reported, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are up a robust 39% year-over-year, well ahead of expectation for 28% growth predicted at the end of September. Although not as...

With inflation surprising to the upside and lasting longer than most expect, we believe investors will need to rethink portfolio management and what it means to own a balanced portfolio. Below we address many of the questions related...

With the Delta variant still on everyone's mind, we continue to hear about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns, vaccine mandates, vaccine effectiveness, the list goes on and on. The vaccines have clearly led to a lower...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Slowly but surely, the supply chain bottlenecks that have plagued the global economy for over a year appear to be easing—or at least have been circumvented. Read more...

Please enjoy the November issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month.We hope that you find the newsletter useful. Click here to download the publication.

The Internal Revenue Service has announced annual inflation adjustments for tax year 2022, meaning new tax-rate schedules and tax tables and cost-of-living adjustments for various tax breaks. Most numbers are up more than in recent...

Inflation is back and worse than it's been in decades. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in October and are up 6.2% in the last twelve months. Two more months of moderate increases, and the CPI will be 6.5% in 2021, the highest inflation since...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

We generally adopt a posture of optimism or pessimism as a response (or reaction) to external events. We see how things are unfolding and make a decision about what to expect. We feel like we need to justify our response based on the...

With the Delta variant still on everyone's mind, we continue to hear about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns, vaccine mandates, vaccine effectiveness, the list goes on and on. The vaccines have clearly led to a lower...

When it comes to retirement planning, financial considerations are usually at the top of the agenda. For most future retirees, income is relatively quantifiable, with social security, pensions, investments, and savings. Anticipating...

What did the Fed decide at their recent meeting? As widely expected, the Fed announced that beginning this month, they will reduce their monthly purchases of bonds by $15 billion ($10 billion of Treasuries and $5 billion of mortgages)....

Using Consumer Price Index, Alyssa Fowers and Rachel Siegel for The Washington Post show how the prices of everyday things rose since 2019. Read more...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

As we head into the final quarter of the year, the robust optimism that characterized the economic recovery and market sentiment in the spring has given way to a more measured outlook. The impacts of the Delta variant, fading fiscal...

Investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve this week and our expectation is that it will finally announce an overdue tapering of quantitative easing. In addition, we expect Chairman Jerome Powell to make it clear in the press...

The news has a lot of articles on stagflation; is that a risk to the economy? We do not see stagflation as a risk to the economy. It tends to be a problem during recessions, and we do not anticipate one for the foreseeable future. The...

With the Delta variant still on everyone's mind, we continue to hear about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns, vaccine mandates, vaccine effectiveness, the list goes on and on. The vaccines have clearly led to a lower...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Art (movies, plays, fiction, paintings, poetry…) exists to create a change. Often, that’s a change in the viewer, and sometimes, powerful art changes the culture. Art with no intent can entertain us, and it can also...

Keynesianism can temporarily giveth, but ultimately always taketh away...and then some. When the US fell into the COVID crisis, the federal government went on a massive spending binge. Pre-COVID, in the twelve months through March 2020...

With the Delta variant still on everyone's mind, we continue to hear about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns, vaccine mandates, vaccine effectiveness, the list goes on and on. The vaccines have clearly led to a lower...

Please enjoy the October issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month.We hope that you find the newsletter useful. Click here to download the publication.

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

Is recent volatility a concern? After an unusually long period of complacency, volatility has returned to markets. Concerns over Fed tapering and rising bond yields, the U.S. debt ceiling, inflation pressures, slowing economic and...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

In 2009, after overly strict mark-to-market accounting rules were altered, we said the Financial Crisis was over. It was hard to get our voice heard, though, because both sides of the political aisle were busy saying the economy stunk....

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Last March, when the government was considering whether to lockdown the economy, we argued that the longer we stayed locked down the more permanent the damage we would do to the underlying economy. It is now clear that the cost of the...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

How significant will the economic impact be from Hurricane Ida? While the economic damage from Hurricane Ida is still being assessed, the storm that wreaked havoc from New Orleans to New York could end up becoming one of the costliest...

Usually, the most important economic data report every month is the Employment Report and usually that key report comes out the first Friday of every month. But this month is throwing one of those periodic knuckleballs and so we need...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

Please enjoy the September issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month. We hope that you find the newsletter useful. Click here to download the publication.

How significant will the economic impact be from Hurricane Ida? While the economic damage from Hurricane Ida is still being assessed, the storm that wreaked havoc from New Orleans to New York could end up becoming one of the costliest...

The 2021 Fall Foliage Map is the ultimate visual planning guide to the annual progressive changing of the leaves. While no tool can be 100% accurate, this tool is meant to help travelers better time their trips to have the best...

Most of the revenue the government collects comes from contributions from individual taxpayers, small businesses, and corporations through taxes that get collected on a yearly or quarterly basis. The remaining sources of federal...

If you've read our two most recent Monday Morning Outlooks, you know we raised our forecast for the S&P 500, but lowered our forecast for real GDP growth. How can that be? The first thing to recognize is that when we say we're bullish...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Three construction workers were busy renovating a historic mansion in Brittany, France, when they came across an intriguing find: a metal box embedded in a wall. The find occurred on a Friday in late October 2019, recalls the...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

Culture doesn’t change (much). Elements of human culture have been around for 100,000 years, and it persists. In fact, its persistence is a key attribute of why it works. People like us do things like this. In the last ten years,...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

The model for TV in the 1960s was three major networks supported by mass advertising. And so the shows that were produced were banal, reassuring and fairly inexpensive to produce. The goal was simply to keep someone from watching the...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

What effect will Delta have on the economy? The recent spike in COVID cases, driven by the Delta variant, continues to be concerning. However, new case rates appear to be slowing, particularly in the hard-hit, lower-vaccinated...

We've been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018. But, since 2009, the market has rebounded from every correction. Why have we stayed bullish?...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

If we’re hungry, the obvious solution is to eat something. If we’re restless, it pays to get up and walk around. Is stress different? Along the way, it seems as though we got confused about the best way to deal with the...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

What are we learning from Q2 earnings season? For the fifth consecutive quarter, S&P 500 earnings are coming in much stronger than expected. With nearly all companies reported, Q2 EPS is tracking at 90% growth year over year, 25...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

Please enjoy the August issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month. We hope that you find the newsletter useful.Click here to download the publication.

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

That used to involve putting film or paper into a chemical bath. You could have a small influence over what happened, but almost all the work involved setting up the shot in the first place. The goal of the bath was to uncover what was...

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. With the Delta variant on everyone's mind as cases rise again, we are hearing more about school closings, mask mandates, potential shutdowns...

In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn't have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy. In that world, government – be it in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Will the resurgence of COVID-19 cases threaten the U.S. economic recovery? At the national level the resurgence of COVID-19 cases, now mostly due to the highly contagious Delta variant, remains modest. Although new cases have...

Congratulations, you’ve been vaccinated against the coronavirus. Now you have to prove it, and your smartphone can help. Across the world, fears about the delta variant are leading more businesses, schools and travel...

Last week, the government reported real GDP in the US grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter and was up 6.4% at an annual rate in the first half of 2021. Real GDP is now 0.8% larger than it was at its peak just prior to COVID...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Which comes first? The feelings, the facts, or the story we tell ourselves that leads to the feelings? It’s surprising that I ended up at the college I went to. Back in 1978, there were two ways to visit campus if you were taking...

Someone once said, "technology has never moved this fast, and at the same time, will never move this slow again." So true! A partial list of recent technological advances includes: messenger RNA (mRNA) gene therapies, 5G wireless,...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Please enjoy the July issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month. We hope that you find the newsletter useful.Click here to download the publication.

A new Quarterly Newsletter has been posted. Click Here to view the entire piece which features market analysis and sector overviews. The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Many are convinced that a US stock market correction, or even a bear market, is inevitable. So, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last Thursday, many thought it had arrived. Then, the S&P 500 rebounded and hit a new all-time high on...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the "twin deficits" and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, mean the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies. Before we get into the weeds,...

What might a bipartisan infrastructure deal mean? After weeks of negotiation, President Biden and a bipartisan group of senators have agreed in principle to a framework for a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. The agreement focuses...

COVID-19 was not a hoax, but it was the world's first Social Media pandemic, where fear was spread in a way we have never seen before. Our goal with the COVID-19 Tracker was to provide a data driven piece to put the pandemic in...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years. Current Fed chief Jerome Powell's term as chairman runs out in February 2022. We think the choice...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Is the United States’ job market tight? Well, that totally depends on your perspective. From a national perspective, it certainly isn’t tight. Total nonfarm payrolls were 144.9 million in May 2021, still down 7.6 million...

Should investors be worried about tapering? Fed stimulus has been a powerful source of fuel for the recovery in stock prices over the past year, and a transition to less policy support is bound to bring some anxiety to markets. However...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Please enjoy the June issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month. We hope that you find the newsletter useful.Click here to download the publication.

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

To drive home his commitment to easy monetary policy and low interest rates in mid-2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declared the Fed was not even "thinking about thinking about raising rates." The Fed meets again later this...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

What are the key takeaways from Q1 earnings results? With 99% of companies now reported, Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking a tremendous 52.4% year-over-year increase and more than double the expectation when earnings season began. Keep...

Perhaps more than ever, now is a time to appreciate America's small towns. As we begin to see the other side of a pandemic that kept so many of us isolated, it is easier to understand the value in those things we've missed. Whether...

We keep hearing people make comparisons between this recovery and those of the past as if it's apples-to-apples. For example, comparing job growth today to job growth after the 2008-2009 Panic. All in an effort to make the case that...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Talk about revisionist history! A recent tweetstorm from an opinion leader at the NY Times says that, looking back, he wonders what all the fuss was about inflation in the 1970s. It wasn't "that high," he says, and so the risk of...

We view the inflationary pressures that we're seeing as being temporary and that over time they will subside, and we'll get back to the long-term trend of inflation of around 2%. Listen to Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager...

We have argued for many years, investors were incorrectly focused on the Fed policy as a leading indicator. Except during the Volker era, the Fed has almost always been a lagging indicator. In other words, the Fed tends to react to the...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

We are now more than a year beyond the start of the pandemic and six months beyond the election. As markets hit highs, the economy rebounds, and policy takes shape, one word has recently dominated the headlines: inflation. A certain...

The recovery in the U.S. economy is well documented. Continued optimism, low interest rates, and strong corporate profits continue to drive stock prices higher. Charles Boettcher, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager,...

Should equity investors be concerned about inflation? Rising inflation should not be disregarded as a risk for investors. It can erode the value of real investment returns, and too much can spell trouble for equities if it results in...

It's not a surprise. Inflation is running hot. But, is it transitory and temporary, or is it real and here for the longer term. How hot will the Federal Reserve let it run, and for how long? When does transitory and cyclical become...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Please enjoy the May issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month. We hope that you find the newsletter useful. Click here to download the publication.

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Another quarter for consumers to rely on massive stimulus payments, extremely loose monetary policy, and the continued re-opening of the US economy combined to push real GDP up at a very rapid pace in the second quarter, with the...

The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

On April 28, in advance of his first address delivered before a Joint Session of Congress, President Biden unveiled his $1.8 trillion proposal titled the American Families Plan, which sets forth a myriad of social programs, including...

The Biden administration has proposed a range of personal and corporate tax increases to pay for roughly $4 trillion in new spending plans. While higher taxes ahead appear inevitable, we expect changes to some of these proposals as...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

One of the best economic debates that's happening right now isn't between Republicans and Democrats or liberals versus conservatives, it's between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary "stimulus"...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

During the pandemic, the federal government and Federal Reserve combined to create multiple programs to mitigate some of the costs associated with the closure of businesses and a significant increase in unemployment. We favored these...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The table and charts in the Recovery Tracker track high frequency data, which are published either weekly or daily. With most states reopening their economies and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, these indicators show...

Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it's going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get? Answer: Some really strong economic data. The problem is that...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

With the COVID-19 vaccination rates accelerating in the U.S. and the pandemic easing in many parts of the country, the U.S. economy continues to improve with the latest unemployment report indicating a strong recovery – the best...

The S&P 500 fell almost 50% between mid-February and mid-March 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic. It bottomed at roughly 2,224 during the nationwide strategy of shutting down for "15 days to slow the spread." Because this...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06. The FHFA index is up 12.0% in the past twelve months, the largest on record (going back...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

When the scientists said "15 days to slow the spread," some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally be getting...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The federal budget deficit hit an all-time record high of $3.1 trillion last year. With the passage of the recent blowout "stimulus" bill, it's set to be even higher in 2021. Now we watch and wait for a potential infrastructure bill,...

You've got to hand it to the Federal Reserve. With the cleverness of a seasoned head coach – think Jim Boeheim leading Syracuse in the NCAA basketball tournament – they figured out how to accomplish a great deal while...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

If you have not received your vaccine, use this link below to find the COVID-19 vaccines near you. Find COVID-19 Vaccines Near You

As the COVID-19 pandemic ravages the U.S., vaccines have begun to be distributed across the country and its territories. Two vaccines, one made by Pfizer-BioNTech and another from Moderna, have been authorized for emergency use and are...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Things are looking up for the US economy. Later this week we'll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that'll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%. Meanwhile,...

What are structured notes? How do they limit risk while allowing for gains? Considering their pros and cons, could a structured note be right for you? Find out how to tell. A question that commonly comes my way lately is, “How...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Ever since the stock market bottomed in 2009 during the financial crisis, people have been coming up with reasons why the bull market was about to end. We heard every reason – Brexit, the end of Quantitative Easing, too much debt...

Please enjoy the February issue of CNR’s The Bottom Line, a client-friendly snapshot of key items we’re watching each month. This publication is being provided for you to directly distribute to your clients. We hope that...

Ski slopes are marked by difficulty. The green circle indicates the easiest slope, the one that will get you to the base of the hill the fastest, with the least amount of risk or drama. Why would anyone choose to ski down on the...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020, which ended 9/30/2020, was $3.1 trillion, the highest ever on record in dollar terms, and the highest relative to GDP since World War II. This year the deficit will be even larger. Before the...

Trust in traditional media has declined to an all-time low, and many news professionals are determined to do something about it. Why it matters: Faith in society's central institutions, especially in government and the media, is the...

How can a $20 bill be worth over $57,000? Because of a printing mishap. The "Del Monte note," a rare $20 banknote with a banana sticker on it, is currently for sale through Heritage Auctions, a Dallas-based auction house. Currency...

To identify the best places to retire, U.S. News analyzed data for the 150 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. to assess how well they meet Americans' retirement needs and expectations. Top criteria include the happiness of local...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

If you’re anything like me, you have a subtle, socially acceptable addiction, one you can indulge in wherever and whenever you please. You have a compulsive need to scroll through headlines, jokes, insults, pictures, music videos...

The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia. As a result, President Biden will have slender majorities in the House and Senate. These slender majorities limit many...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

This is a fascinating graph on the vaccination distribution. We, as a country, need to do better!

If you are someone who follows a traditional religion, you most likely have a day such as Yom Kippur, Ashura, or Ash Wednesday, dedicated to atoning for your sins and vowing to make improvements to your life. But if you are not...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Amid the whirl of the holiday season, many are vaguely aware of the approach of the winter solstice, but how much do you really know about it? Whether you're a fan of winter or just wish it would go away, here are 10 things to...

This is a local news-powered dashboard tracking vaccine dose allocations for all 64 jurisdictions (50 states, 8 territories and 6 cities) and 5 federal agencies. This interactive dashboard will keep you up-to-date on vaccinations....

Please enjoy the Russell Investments 2021 Global Market Outlook: The Old Normal. We hope that you find the newsletter useful. Click here to download the publication.

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday authorized the first coronavirus test that people will be able to buy at a local store without a prescription and use for immediate results at home to find out if they're positive or...

Please enjoy the December issue of City National Rochdale’s The Bottom Line, a snapshot of key items CNR is watching each month. We hope that you find the newsletter useful. Click here to download the publication.

Back room deals in Washington, DC always die and come back to life, over and over, again. And, even though a "COVID-shutdown rescue package" seems like a no brainer, it's been caught up in politics for months. Democrats have been...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The recovery in the equity markets has confounded some, given the damage to the economy caused by the COVID crisis. However, it’s important to remember that stock prices are forward-looking in nature. In other words, investors...

The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID...

Angelina Friedman, a 102-year-old New York woman who lived through the 1918 flu pandemic and survived cancer, has now beat the coronavirus — twice, her daughter says. The first time Friedman was diagnosed with Covid-19 was in...

We hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving! Positive COVID-19 tests continue to rise in the US and around the world, but in the US, deaths continue to remain below the daily peak set in early April, so the case fatality rate...

In early November, when US President-elect Mr Joe Biden reached out to other world leaders, he conducted the traditional celebratory courtesies in a time-honoured fashion. He didn’t Zoom Mr Justin Trudeau, his first caller. Nor...

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has revised its guidelines for people who may have been exposed to the coronavirus. Now, instead of the standard 14-day quarantine it has been recommending, the CDC says that potential...

How do you act when you’re not thinking about how you act? When no one is looking and when you’re just doing what you’re doing… That’s the automatic self. No narrative, no second-guessing. Now,...

In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call. But we'd be fibbing if we didn't admit to getting whipsawed by COVID-19. In the...

Who's in charge of fiscal policy? That's the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the Treasury's decision to end certain emergency lending...

Here are the worst 200 passwords of 2020. The list details how many times a password has been exposed, used, and how much time it would take to crack it. We also compare the worst passwords of 2019 and 2020, highlighting how their...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

After this year, we all need a good laugh!! During Thanksgiving, enjoy one or more of these hilarious movies. -- Comedy generates an immediate, undeniable audience response. If audiences are smiling and laughing, then there's a good...

Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Attending a good school in the U.S. comes at a price. Since 1985, college tuition has risen by roughly 500%, vastly outpacing almost all other increases in the cost of living. Today, there are more than 4,000 colleges in the country,...

A fascinating interactive model showing how herd immunity works (with or without vaccines). Read more...

Veterans Day is a well-known American holiday, but there are also a few misconceptions about it — like how it’s spelled or whom exactly it celebrates. To clear some of that up, here are the important facts you should know....

Small businesses count on your support. There is so much to be found among the shelves and racks lining Kansas City shops. Here are 88 spots with our favorite shopping right now. Read more...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

If you have had a tough week, science has determined the 10 happiest songs. Read more...

As the US opened up, real GDP rebounded sharply in the third quarter, growing at a 33.1% annual rate. However, real GDP is still down 2.9% from a year ago and the economy got a huge boost from spending by the federal government, which...

Why do some people have better memories than others? This question has taken on new significance with the explosion of digital culture, which has been associated with memory failure. A new study by Stanford University researchers,...

Let’s start this fact-checking guide with a fact: Despite rising concerns about the spread of fake news, almost one in five U.S. adults mostly use social media to stay current. Read more...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

These charts from First Trust are wonderful food for thought with a matter of days left before Election Day. Enjoy!! First Trust Client Resource Kit: Election Edition

Here is some perspective we would like to share with you in our current times. Click here...

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

These treats will make you the most popular house in the neighborhood. The social contract of Halloween is simple: Provide adequate treats to costumed masses, or be prepared for late-night tricks from those dissatisfied with your offer...

We found this fascinating and gives you all the probable outcomes of our upcoming election. Electoral College Decision Tree

There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we...

To identify the best places to retire, U.S. News analyzed data for the 150 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. to assess how well they meet Americans' retirement needs and expectations. Top criteria include the happiness of local...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest drop in real GDP for any...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Over the past couple of decades, the Federal Reserve has coalesced around an idea about inflation that is little more than theoretical, with no real data to back it up. That "idea" is that 2% inflation is the "correct" amount of...

Two years ago we set out to identify a signature dish for each state, from Sonoran dogs in Arizona to cheese curds in Wisconsin. For the second iteration of this list, we wanted to go beyond the classics—the food everyone tells...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

If you live in the U.S., chances are you're already planning to do a little fall foliage scouting. But the best fall foliage in the world can be found across the globe, as a backdrop of gold for Bavarian castles, and carpets of rich...

The number of myths and misconceptions are plenty when it comes to retirement and retirement planning. Some of these misconceptions are held by retirees and preretirees because of personal biases, lack of knowledge, or wishful thinking...

With the presidential election just over a month away, prospects for another round of fiscal stimulus seem to be dwindling. The recent death of Justice Ginsburg and the rapidly approaching election have shifted the Senate's gaze....

This interactive webpage from The Washington Post has some great data to see how your state is faring. Enjoy.

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic reports we've seen so far, it...

Celebrating Ike’s political, military accomplishments required compromise between the architect and the president’s family After two decades of debate over how to honor Dwight D. Eisenhower, as well as more recent delays...

Don’t try this at home. Unless you really know what you are doing. The weeks of self-quarantine have caused all of us to do things we always thought of doing. Frankly, I’ve been so busy with my “day job” that I...

But why is this important?” When we encounter a fashion, a film or some other cultural artifact that the critical establishment has celebrated, it’s easy to not understand it. Taste, after all, is unevenly distributed. But...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Here is an article from CNBC that explains the Federal Reserve. Read more...

As many things have gone virtual, so too has the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. However, let's get through Halloween first and all the logistics of that.

A wonderful visual experience on our world economy. Enjoy!! -- The global economy can seem like an abstract concept, yet it influences our everyday lives in both obvious and subtle ways. Nowhere is this clearer than in the current...

As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% "annualized" growth rate...

Sometimes I talk about the education-industrial complex on this blog, rarely with kindness. I captured much of that in Stop Stealing Dreams. Readers will see that not once have I criticized a hard-working teacher who meant well....

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

You’ve probably heard the lines about how “40 is the new 30” or “30 is the new 20.” What is this based on? Are they just lines to make older people feel younger? Is it based on how you feel? Is there...

While this year has been devastating for restaurants, American barbecue remains as resilient and exciting as ever. We're celebrating the people and places that are hanging on, spectacularly. Read more...

The Chiefs weren’t always winners. In the years before coach Andy Reid arrived, they had five losing seasons out of six, including two campaigns with just two wins against fourteen losses. Guys like Tyler Thigpen and Brady Quinn...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

With the 2020 Election only 2 months away, we found this chart very interesting and wanted to share it with you. How Stocks Have Fared In The First Year Of A Four-Year Presidential Term

Parents can do their children a favor if, from an early age, kids hear them say “famous college” instead of “good college.” Because there’s very little data that shows that colleges with big football...

Another day, another step closer to real life imitating an episode of Black Mirror. With so many of us cooped up indoors while wistfully staring out our windows as the summer season draws to a close, Spotify has stepped in to help...

Time travelers should prepare for tough sledding. If you went back to 1820 or even 1920, all the sudden changes would discombobulate you. And the same is true for someone who came forward to today. We’ve got a deep-seated desire...

Remember that fuzzy little feeling called happiness? In case you need a reminder: It was this word we used to use back in 2019 to describe a state of pure pleasure and contentment. Happiness seems to have faded from our vocabulary amid...

… demand systemic solutions. First, we have to pay attention. Then we need to acknowledge that a solution is possible. And then we need to commit. To the long, persistent road to altering the status quo. The world is forcing us...

If you pay close attention to our stock market forecasts, the title of this piece will look familiar. At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — the strangest year in our lifetimes, and it's not even...

When I was growing up, my mom used to say, “I never want my son to be a firefighter. He’ll run right into the fire.” I became a pitmaster instead (different kind of fire), but she was right. Once I see a challenge, I...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we're penciling in real GDP growth at a 20%...

After all that is transpired in 2020, it's hard to believe that Election Day, Nov. 3, is 72 days away. You can use this portal to register to vote in your state, check registration deadlines and mail-in voting procedures. You can find...

The “before times” seem like a decade ago, don’t they? Those carefree days when hugging friends and shaking hands wasn’t verboten, when we didn’t have to reach for a mask before leaving our homes, or...

As we navigate the new travel normal, making decisions about where to go—or whether to go at all—during a pandemic requires flexibility and informed planning. By the time this issue reaches you, the COVID-19 news will...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The Squirrel, the Rat Terrier and Investing

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

It was a beautiful 70 degree morning, and since we continue to work from home, I tend to work on my back patio. Mornings like these are the best as it is some much needed vitamin D and just the sounds of nature are soothing to the soul...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

[This probably impacts every person reading this, but few of us get to decide to fix it.. I figured it was worth sharing so you can share it…] Don’t require special characters (like ! or worse, ‘) in the passwords...

It's going to take years for the US economy to fully heal from the economic disaster brought about by COVID-19 and the government-mandated shutdowns which continue to limit economic activity across the country. When we talk about a...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

There is a widening gulf between American aspirations for and assessments of the news media. With each passing benchmark study, the American people render deeper and increasingly polarized judgments about the news media and how well it...

It’s true that some of the most beautiful views in the country come from the tops of ivory towers. Across America, college campuses big and small boast some of the most beautiful architecture and landscaping—not to mention...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are "mostly peaceful" or "violent," and now GDP. Late last week, plenty of headlines...

With school openings on the possible horizon, here is a nice graphic to let you know what states are doing in education. State-by-state map of where school buildings are open or closed If you have children or grandchildren getting...

Identity theft is a systemic and ever-changing risk that continues to unleash significant new threats to personal security. No one is immune to these evolving tactics to acquire sensitive information, which can leave individuals...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, the shortage of N95 respirator masks presented a dire situation for the healthcare and frontline workers who needed them most. Essential workers who relied on N95 masks had no choice but to...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Being informed is a virtue. It helps us make better decisions and encourages us to take action. Getting hooked on an endless scroll of media inputs is not the same as being informed. There’s long been a business model of urgent...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click here to...

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work. With the advent of an infectious disease outbreak, epidemiologists and public health officials quickly try to forecast deaths and infections using complex computer...

It's 11:37pm and the pattern shows no signs of shifting. At 1:12am, it’s more of the same. Thumb down, thumb up. Twitter, Instagram, and—if you’re feeling particularly wrought/masochistic—Facebook. Ever since...

When it comes to success, praising the merits of a strong work ethic comes naturally. But what you do for fun can also support your career goals and complement your drive for achievement in a valuable way. In fact, many of the...

In the eighth annual Disruptor 50 list, CNBC identifies private companies whose breakthroughs are influencing business and market competition at an accelerated pace. They are poised to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic with tech...

Most of you know that I come from a small town in North Central Kansas, Smith Center. I loved growing up there!! I don't get back as much as I should, but with some of you that love to travel, here is an article to find those little...

The one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week...

This is some interesting perspective in the times we are in currently. Feel free to forward this to family and friends who may enjoy this article. Enjoy this piece.

Video conferences are far from the most exciting part of a work day — but one animal shelter is about to change that. A new program started by Richmond Animal Care & Control (RACC) allows individuals, companies and schools from...

This weekend, why not take a virtual train ride from the comforts of your home? Here are 13 options available to you. Feel free to share this with any family or friends who you think would like this experience. Enjoy your trip!! 13...

Doctors say just 120 minutes of outdoor time per week (that’s about 17 minutes per day) could be enough to feel mental health benefits. Enjoy this online slidedeck for more information (and beautiful nature pictures). Communing...

This is an intriguing article about hidden treasure that was not found for over a decade. Do enjoy this article.

The recession that started in March is the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. As it turns out, it was also the shortest. Friday's employment report should leave little doubt that the US economy has already hit bottom and is...

Muhammad Ali RIP

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

On this day in 2016, famed fighter Muhammad Ali passed away. One of his many quotes rings so true today: "Service to others is the rent you pay for your room here on Earth."

A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don't anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024. However, there is a...

I am a visual person. I think this is a great article for other's that like visual depictions. Enjoy!! All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization

There are many high school and college graduates who are having their "remote" graduation ceremonies. As a source of inspiration for those new graduates, Jon Kiser of Huckberry has compiled some influential graduation speeches. If you...

Even though the economic data is still daunting, we are starting to see some signs of growth. Here are some signs of that. Please feel free to call us if you have any questions. Sources: First Trust Advisors, Department of Labor,...

Yet more amazing perspective from Seth Godin. Do enjoy!! -- If you can study something behavioral on college students, you can bet it gets studied a lot. It’s easy and cheap to run these sorts of tests. Which is how we came to...

As many of you know, my 11-year old son, Hayden, figured out during the pandemic, that he has a passion for painting. He loves watching YouTube videos of famed painter, Bob Ross, and creates gorgeous nature scenes. After hearing this,...

Just another article to show my passion towards cooking and food to you all. Enjoy!! Food & Wine Best Chefs of 2020

Another positive story of resilience during the pandemic. Enjoy. Read article here.

In December 2018 with the S&P 500 at 2,500, we forecast it would hit 3,100 by the end of 2019 and then pushed our forecast to 3,250 as stocks soared. The S&P 500 rose 28.9% in 2019 and hit that revised target on the first day of...

Wearing a mask in public is only half the battle—you’ve also got to keep it clean. The mask. It's all about the mask. Choosing a face mask or three, wearing a face mask, figuring out how to wash a face mask. Even as some...

Another wonderful thought provoking snippet from Seth Godin. Enjoy!! “Wake me when it’s over,” is a natural instinct during a short-term interruption in our usual pattern. A crisis is there to be managed or waited out...

When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the...

During the pandemic, my wife, Heather, has been assisting her good friend, Michelle Dawbarn, at sewKC making fashion forward masks. Michelle's local small business has gotten publicity on television and print regarding this. I thought...

The 2020 JamesBeard Awards Finalists

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

As most of you know, I'm a "Foodie" and have a real passion for cooking. So, when the finalists for the James A Beard Award came out, I just had to share this with you. Plus, there is a Kansas Citian in the mix. Enjoy this delectable...

The winners of the 2020 Pulitzer Prizes were announced in atypical fashion Monday afternoon. Usually held at Columbia University in New York City, due to the coronavirus pandemic this year’s Pulitzer announcement took place in...

I just noticed something about the ubiquitous sign at every diner. On one hand, it means, “the special that was assigned to today.” It’s possessive. But on the other hand, it could simply mean, “today is special...

Sidewalk chalk drawing is something we all did growing up. During the pandemic, many families are re-visiting their driveways and patios again with a spirit of creativity. Enjoy this piece.

More than 97% of the US population is currently under a stay-at-home or shelter-in-place order as the coronavirus pandemic continues to upend life as we know it. More than 50,000 Americans have died. But worries for the economy -- and...

Tired Of All The Bad Coronavirus News, This Artist Decided To Illustrate Some Good Ones

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

I found this wonderful article on some of the enlightening things coming out of this pandemic. Please enjoy this and be safe. Tired Of All The Bad Coronavirus News, This Artist Decided To Illustrate Some Good Ones

Before the Coronavirus, the US economy was cruising for what looked like 3% annualized growth in real GDP in the first quarter. But the effects of both natural social distancing and government-mandated lockdowns crushed economic growth...

Harvard University is Offering Free Online Courses

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Friday, April 10, 2020

We are all practicing social distancing, staying at home and (for Cohen Financial Services) working from home. We want to make sure that during this time of self-quarantine, we give you creative ideas to things to do. Harvard...

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, schools around the world have cleared their campuses and shuttered classroom doors. But the halts to in-person learning haven’t stopped dogged educators from continuing their lessons...

For Our Small Business Owners

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

I hope you and your family are staying safe and healthy. If you are a Small Business Owner and plan on completing the SBA Emergency Loan form online, there is some information you need to have readily available. In addition to basic...

Total deaths in the US from COVID19 look like they'll hit at least 3,000 by the end of March. A potentially brutal April lies ahead. In the meantime, the measures taken to limit deaths have temporarily tanked the US economy. Initial...

How spending has been allocated to bolster the economy through the pandemic U.S. lawmakers have agreed on the passage of a $2 trillion stimulus bill called the CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act to blunt the...

A 102-year-old Italian woman made a miraculous recovery from the coronavirus after a 20-day hospital stint in the northern city of Genoa, according to a report. Italica Grondona came down with the dangerous virus and was admitted with...

With the Senate passing the CARES ACT unanimously, the Coronavirus Stimulus Bill heads to the House. This is a concise summation of what the monumental bill will cover. If you want to discuss this in further detail, just know, we are...

We follow Seth's blog for inspiration deep thinking. We thought we would share yesterday's post with you. Enjoy!! -- The way we feel can be triggered by outside events. And that can change how we act. And the way we act can reinforce...

Aesop and My Family

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Thursday, March 19, 2020

During these unprecedented times, I think back to one of Aesop’s fables that has affected me and my family. It was November. My 20-year old niece was going to celebrate her 21st birthday in style; she was going to Las Vegas for a...

The History of Pandemics Pan·dem·ic /panˈdemik/ (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world. As humans have spread across the world, so have infectious diseases. Even in this modern era, outbreaks are...

Less than a month ago markets were at a record high, as healthy data on the US economy signaled continued growth on the horizon. Then, as Coronavirus made its way to continental Europe and the United States, markets went into a...

Important Announcement - Our Committment to You

Jason Stewart, CLTC

Friday, March 13, 2020

As Cohen Financial Services continues to monitor the latest developments with the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), the significance of serving you continues to be our top priority. First and foremost, the health and well-being of...

This piece covers: Recent coronavirus news creating market volatility Reports from the medical community and coronavirus task force Potential economic effects of the virus in the U.S. and globally Federal Reserve rate cut in response...

No one knows with any real certainty how much, or for how long, the Coronavirus will impact the US economy. What we do know is that it will have an impact. And, after data releases of recent weeks, we also know that the US economy was...

Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% - the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year....

City National Rochdale's FAQs on the Markets and Economy How concerned should investors be about coronavirus? What did Fed chairman Jay Powell talk about to Congress? For years, Puerto Rico's debt was in the news; what is the current...

Thirty years ago, many in the US were in fear that a rising power in Asia was on the verge of eclipsing the US. Now it's China, back then it was Japan. Back in the late 1980s Japan had become the second largest economy in the world...

In January, US payrolls expanded by 225,000, not only beating the consensus forecast, but also forecasts from every single economics group. Since January 2019 (12 months ago), both payrolls and civilian employment – an...

The US economy is not in an economic boom, but growth has been consistently faster than during the Plow Horse phase from mid-2009 through the end of 2016. Real GDP has grown at a 2.6% annual rate since the start of 2017 versus 2.2%...

The longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP...

What a year! As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 29.2% in 2019. At the end of 2018, we forecasted the S&P would hit 3100 this year. At the time, this was a very aggressive call. Then we doubled down at mid-year, lifting our...

During the next couple of days you're going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on...

What an incredible time to be alive! We stand just five weeks from the end of a decade that saw prosperity spread far and wide. Some don't see it that way, as pouting pundits and rancorous politics skew our visions. But, if we simply...

Last December, almost 12 months ago, we set our year-end 2019 target for the S&P 500 at 3,100. Many thought we were way too bullish, but our model for the stock market suggested 3,100 was well within reach. We believed the bull market...

One of our favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer's 1990 book, "Unlimited Wealth." It is an excellent tool for thinking about wealth creation, inequality and redistribution. Imagine 10 people live on an...

Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial...

At the close of business on Friday, the futures market in federal funds was putting the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would place the federal funds rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75%, the lowest it's...

The government doesn't release its initial estimate on third quarter real GDP for another nine days, but at this point we have enough facts and figures to make an educated guess that it'll come in at right around a 1.8% annual rate,...

In spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday's employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most Americans have...

You can convert your IRA to a Roth … but should you? In 2010, Congress began letting everyone convert their Deductible and Non-Deductible IRAs to a Roth IRA. (Previously, conversions were limited to those with Adjusted Gross...

Trade Fears Sap SentimentU.S. stocks declined Friday to end at a three-week low on unconfirmed reports theTrump administration is considering restrictions on American investments into Chinesesecurities and possibly delist Chinese...

• Market swings are getting bigger as investor worries about trade gain ground. • Although we expect a trade agreement between China and the U.S. to materialize, the heated rhetoric has increased in recent weeks. •...

U.S. stocks retreated over 2.5% on Friday after China announced an additional round of retaliatory tariffs on $75B worth of American goods on September 1 and December 15 and President Trump vowed to respond accordingly. The trade...

If you’ve been feeling a little déjà vu these days, it’s with good reason. The ‘90s are making a comeback—or so it would seem. Both then and now, we saw a reboot of Star Wars films, are watching...

Analysts were very quick to pin the blame for weakness in stocks late last week on the trade war with China. We agree that uncertainty regarding the future of US-China trade relations was a drag on equities, but think it was far from...

The threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so...

U.S. stocks ended a volatile week with back-to-back daily gains, trimming its third straight weekly loss to under 1% after skidding to a two-month low on Wednesday. The S&P 500’s near 3% mid-week loss was caused by a global...

• Volatility has increased and the S&P 500 is now down over 6% from its peak. • While the Treasury yield curve is inverted, it is still hard to predict future equity declines. • We expect volatility to remain elevated...