Determining outcomes with a conflict of this nature is difficult, given the complexity of the situation and limited historical precedence. In our current assessment, there is an extraordinarily wide range of outcomes and probabilities, from a best case of de-escalation and a revamped NATO-Russia relationship, to a worst case that would include both a Russian takeover of the entire Ukraine, followed by onerous Western sanctions directly targeting the Russian financial system. In between, outcomes include but are not limited to Russia taking over parts of Eastern Ukraine and establishing a land bridge to Crimea, proxy wars, missile and air attacks in new regions, aggressive cyber-attacks, an extended standoff and disruptions/accidents of gas pipelines and supplies.
Ukraine-Russia Geopolitical Risk Analysis
February 15, 2022