At the end of 2021, we set out our projections for the stock market in 2022: 5,250 for the S&P 500 and 40,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Those projections were based on our expectations for both profit growth in 2022 and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. At that time, given interest rates, the US stock market was still under our estimate of fair value.
This is no longer true. Given the surge in long-term interest rates this year, the US stock market is now fairly valued for the first time in over a dozen years, dating back to the Panic of 2008. During many of these past twelve years, with the US stock market well under fair value year after year, we often lifted our year end forecast during the year.
Reducing Our Stock Market Forecast
May 09, 2022