The Russia-Ukraine war has led to higher market volatility. However, the cost of an extended war and severe sanctions are likely to choke Russia’s small economy.
Despite a small economy, Russia has a significant contribution to global commodities, which could add to higher inflation. While this creates a quandary of competing forces of high inflation and a potential slowdown in growth from higher costs,
the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain focused on inflation and begin raising interest rates.
Historically, geopolitical events have been a humanitarian disaster, but have had a short-lived effect on markets.